Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis Professional Development Group

Mission Statement: To facilitate communication on the topics of predictive modelling (PM) and microbial risk analysis (MRA), encourage research and data reporting methods to support PM and MRA, and promote their applications and use.

Next Meeting

July 21, 2019
Kentucky International Convention Center | Louisville, Kentucky

In conjunction with IAFP 2019

How to Join

Involvement in committees and professional development groups (PDGs) offers Members the opportunity to share a wealth of knowledge and expertise. Members of committees and PDGs are the architects of the Association structure. They plan, develop and institute many of the Association's projects, including workshops, publications and educational sessions. Technical challenges facing the food safety industry are discussed, examined and debated. Members may volunteer to serve on any number of committees or PDGs that plan and implement activities to meet the Association's mission.

Membership on a PDG is voluntary (not by appointment) and may vary from year to year.

IAFP Members can manage their PDG involvement by logging in to the IAFP Web site. At the Member Dashboard, click “Edit Profile.” Your profile has two tabs: Contact Info and Professional Info. Select the Professional Info tab and update the PDGs you would like to participate in. We highly recommend that you contact the PDG chairperson for each group to let them know you have joined their PDG.

Non-members can contact Didi Loynachan, dloynachan@foodprotection.org, for more information.

Minutes

2018 Board Response to Recommendations

  1. Recommend Panos N. Skandamis be approved as Vice Chair of the Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis PDG.

    Board Response: Agree.

  2. Recommend the Board approve the Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis PDG to provide a certificate for those student abstracts (to be presented as posters/technical presentations in the forthcoming IAFP meeting) that will be qualified by the judgment panel of the PDG for being presented at the PDG.

    Board Response: Agree.

2017 Board Response to Recommendations

  1. Recommend contacting firms like IBM who are working with the food industry on BIG data across the industry and finding a sway for them to summarize their findings through webinars, symposia or informal sessions.

    Board Response: Agree, the Board encourages this PDG to proceed with this effort

  2. The MMRA PDG again had big support to recommend that recordings of MMRA PDG webinars be made freely available for both ALL IAFP Members and Non-Members. It is especially the most generic subjects that would be good to broadly diffuse.

    Board Response: The MMRA PDG again had big support to recommend that recordings of MMRA PDG webinars be made freely available for both ALL IAFP Members and Non-Members. It is especially the most generic subjects that would be good to broadly diffuse.

  3. Recommend finding a way to fund webinars through the PDG for presentations that cannot be sponsored by a commercial third party, due to the nature of the project (such as a study by a government agency or WHO/FAO). This would help make webinars freely available.

    Board Response: The Board is open to optional funding of webinars.

2016 Board Response to Recommendations

  1. Recommend to the Board that Bala Kottapalli be approved as the Vice Chair.

    Board Response: Agree

  2. Webinars are a great way of promoting food safety to students, the developing world, small and medium enterprises and other interested parties, and also a good marketing tool for IAFP. Currently, the recordings are only available for members and the webinar itself is freely available if it has as audience PDG members only. The MMRA PDG again had big support to recommend that recordings of MMRA PDG webinars be made freely available for both IAFP members and non-members. The PDG also recommends that webinars sponsored by the MMRA PDG be freely available to members of other IAFP PDGs. This could contribute largely to advancing food safety worldwide, but also improve marketing for new IAFP members.

    Board Response: All IAFP members have access to the Webinars including members of other PDGs. Membership in IAFP is economically priced and viewing Webinars is a benefit of IAFP Membership.

  3. Recommend the Board consider providing electronic addendum for scientific papers published in Journal of Food Protection. Other journals such as the SRA Risk Analysis, IJFM and AEM provide such service so providing electronic addendum to JFP will stimulate people in this domain to submit more papers.

    Board Response: Under the new, JFP Online system, authors will be able to submit supplemental information with their manuscript in the format desired for posting upon finalization of their article.

2015 Board Response to Recommendations

  1. Webinars are a great way of promoting food safety to students, the developing world, small and medium enterprises and other interested parties, and also a good marketing tool for IAFP. Currently the recordings are only available for members and the webinars itself freely available if it has as audience PDG members only. The MMRA PDG recommends that recordings of MMRA-PDG webinars be made freely available again (as was in the past) for both IAFP members and non-members. The PDG also recommends that webinars sponsored by the MMRA PDG be freely available to members of other IAFP PDGs.

    Board Response: Webinars are available to IAFP Members as a member benefit and serve as an incentive to those who are not members to become an IAFP Member. Membership rates are kept extraordinarily low so that it is possible for any interested individuals to be an IAFP Member.

2014 Board Response to Recommendations

  1. Recommend to the Board that Marcel Zwietering be the Vice Chair.

    Board Response: Approved.

  2. Recommend to the Board that the MMRA PDG mission statement be revised as follows: To facilitate communication on the topics of predictive modelling (PM) and microbial risk analysis (MRA), encourage research and data reporting methods to support PM and MRA, and promote their applications and use.

    Board Response: Approved.

Resources

Webinars

  • The Role of Water Quality in Food Safety: Does Water Matter? - Part 3: Does Water Quality Matter to My Food Company?

    Jun 4, 2018

    An initiative of the Water Quality and Safety PDG of the International Association for Food Protection - where people who know and care about what water safety means to food safety gather and share their expertise.

    Part 1 gave the basics of EPA rules, drinking water monitoring, and disinfection.

    Part 2 described what hazards could be in compliant municipal drinking water. 

    Now In Part 3, learn what to do about it!

    First, University of Arizona’s Dr. Chuck Gerba explains the basics of Quantitative  Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) and how to determine your risk profile. EPA’s Ken Rotert highlights which EPA Rules and standards might impact food processing, and how to get information on your water supplier; Dr. Vince Hill of the CDC explains why we don’t hear much about water causing food contamination. Finally, hear valuable advice from Will Daniels, President, Produce Division, IEH Laboratories, with practical approaches to control your risk.

    This webinar is sponsored by the IAFP's Water Safety and Quality PDG, the Microbial Modeling & Risk Analysis PDG & Atlantium Technologies

    Presenters

    • Chuck Gerba, Presenter Professor, Microbiology & Environmental Sciences, Epidemiology and Biostatistics Dept., University of Arizona
    • Kenneth Rotert, Presenter Physical Scientist, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
    • Vincent Hill, Presenter Chief, Waterborne Disease Prevention Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
    • Will Daniels, Presenter President, Produce Division, IEH Laboratories and Consulting Group
    • Phyllis Butler Posy, Moderator Vice President, Strategic & Regulatory Affairs, Atlantium Technologies

  • Practical Applications of Microbial Modeling Webinar Series: Part III of III

    May 22, 2018

    Sponsored by 
    Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis and Meat and Poultry Safety and Quality PDGs 

    Applications of microbial modeling and risk assessment are critically important to the food industry. This is part III in a webinar series that aims for a deeper-dive into practical considerations in applying modeling tools to inform decisions. Structured around specific food matrices (such as meat and poultry, multi-component foods, and fresh produce), the webinars will focus on examples that may be of practical applications in day-to-day problem-solving.

    Speaker's and Moderator Biographies

    Webinar Slides

    Additional Answers to Questions

    Presenters

    • Betsy Booren Olsson Frank Weeda Terman Matz PC
    • Yuhuan Chen FDA CFSAN
    • Tom Ross University of Tasmania.
    • Peter Taormina Etna Consulting Group
    • Marcel Zwietering Wageningen University
    • Bala Kottapalli, Moderator Conagra Brands

  • Practical Applications of Microbial Modeling Webinar Series: Part II of III

    Mar 5, 2018

    Applications of microbial modeling and risk assessment are critically important to the food industry. This is part II in a webinar series that aims for a deeper-dive into practical considerations in applying modeling tools to inform decisions. Structured around specific food matrices (such as meat and poultry, multi-component foods, and fresh produce), the webinars will focus on examples that may be of practical applications in day-to-day problem-solving.

    Sponsored by Q Laboratories
    and
    IAFP Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis and Meat and Poultry Safety and Quality Professional Development Groups

    Speaker and Moderator Biographies

    Webinar Slides

    Questions and Answers

    Presenters

    • Marcel Zwietering Professor, Wageningen University
    • Betsy Booren Senior Policy Advisor, Olsson Frank Weeda Terman Matz PC
    • Peter Taormina, Moderator President, Etna Consulting Group

  • Practical Applications of Microbial Modeling Webinar Series: Part I of III

    Nov 29, 2017

    Applications of microbial modeling and risk assessment are critically important to the food industry. This webinar series aims for a deeper-dive into practical considerations in applying modeling tools to inform decisions. Structured around specific food matrices (such as meat and poultry, multi-component foods, and fresh produce), the webinars will focus on examples that may be of practical applications in day-to-day problem-solving.

    Download Slides

    Questions and Answers

    Presenters

    • Dr. Tom Ross University of Tasmania
    • Dr. Peter Taormina Etna Consulting Group
    • Dr. Betsy Booren, Moderator Olsson, Frank, Weeda, Terman, and Matz

  • Dose-Response for Listeria monocytogenes presented by Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis (MMRA) Professional Development Group (PDG)

    Jun 1, 2017

    The relationship between the number of ingested Listeria monocytogenes cells in food and the likelihood of developing listeriosis is not well understood. Various dose-response models, based on animal models, outbreak data or epidemiological date are currently available. During this webinar, we’ll recall the specific difficulties in deriving a dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes and describing the various models that are currently developed and used. We’ll present the unique data FDA obtained from recent outbreaks and explain if and how they helped our knowledge of this dose-response.

    Download Slides

    Presenters

    • Régis Pouillot Visting Scientist, U.S. Food and Drug Administration
    • Fernando Perez Rodriguez Professor, University of Córdoba (Spain)

  • MMRA PDG presents Modeling in Foods: Kinetics and Tools

    Apr 25, 2017

    Modeling kinetics in primary models, secondary models, and tertiary models involve microbiology, kinetics, mathematics, statistics, and tools. These aspects will be illustrated and examples of the tools IPMP and Baseline will be shown.

    Download Slides

    Presenters

    • Lihuan Huang USDA Agricultural Research Service
    • Antonio Valero Díaz University of Cordoba

  • Modeling Variability and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: a Case Study of Salmonella in Low-water Activity Foods and its Use in Decision Making

    Jun 8, 2016

    Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis Professional Development Group Presents: Modeling Variability and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: a Case Study of Salmonella in Low Water Activity Foods and its Use in Decision Making. The presence, survival and heat resistance of Salmonella in low-water activity foods is affected by many factors including environmental, processing and those inherent to the pathogen. The estimated risk of salmonellosis from consumption of these products is influenced by these factors as well as consumption patterns, production volume and population numbers. Variability in the value of each factor affects the risk of illness whereas uncertainty in the knowledge of each factor affects the risk estimate. The aim of this webinar is to provide an overview of strategies for incorporating variability and uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment models for Salmonella in low-water activity foods and describe the utility of doing so for the decision maker.

    Download Slides

    Presenters

    • Sofia Santillana Farakos
    • Regis Pouillot
    • Jenny Scott

  • The Global Burden of Foodborne Disease - Results and perspectives of WHO’s Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG)

    Feb 9, 2016

    The WHO Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group is providing estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases, according to age, sex and region, for a defined list of causative agents of microbial, parasitic, and chemical origin, thereby strengthening the capacity of countries to assess the burden of foodborne disease and increasing awareness and commitment for the implementation of food safety standards. These estimates provide valuable information for food safety professionals.

    This webinar is sponsored by Wageningen University, Marcel Zwietering, Leon Gorris, Arie Havelaar and an anonymous MMRA PDG Member.

    Webinar Slides

    View Webinar

    Presenters

    • Arie Hendrik Havelaar Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida
    • Marcel Zwietering, Moderator Wageningen University

  • The application of the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP) and Food Safety Objective (FSO) Risk-based Metrics in Food Safety Management

    Jan 20, 2015

    Risk-based metrics such as the ALOP and FSO have been formally adopted by Codex Alimentarius as a means of establishing a link between governmental public health policy and the management of safety in the food chain. Although this link is very much desirable for making food safety management transparent and quantifiable, the ALOP and FSO are not yet actively used as such by competent authorities, maybe due to difficulties to operationalize the metrics.

    Organized by the Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis PDG

    Presenters

    • Dr. Leon Gorris Unilever Research, The Netherlands
    • Dr. Elissavet Gkogka Arla Foods, Denmark

  • Towards Harmonization of Food Safety Risk Modelling and its Resources

    May 28, 2014

    This webinar addresses the need for harmonization within food safety risk modelling that can be achieved by sharing resources and linking tools. On the basis of an analysis of the current status-quo this webinar introduces initiatives and technical solutions that could support the global risk assessment community in achieving this.

    Organized by the Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis PDG

    Presenters

    • Dr. Maarten Nauta Technical University of Denmark, National Food Institute
    • Mr. Matthias Filter Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, Germany

  • Risk Based Microbiological Criteria for Campylobacter

    May 29, 2013

    This Webinar discusses how quantitative microbiological risk assessment has recently been applied to develop "risk based" Microbiological Criteria (MCs) for Campylobacter in broiler meat and illustrate how these MCs may offer a tool for Campylobacter control and risk management.

    Organized by the Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis PDG.

    Please note that Slides #43 and 44 are incorrect. Please click here to see the correct slides.

    Presenters

    • Dr. Maarten Nauta Senior Scientist, Epidemiology and Molecular Genomics, National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark (DTU Food)

  • Distributions of microorganisms in food and their impact on food safety

    Jan 31, 2013

    Not much is known about how microorganisms are actually physically distributed in foods, yet these distributions determine the likelihood of a foodstuff to cause illness and the consequential public health burden. When food is sampled in an effort to reduce the risk of causing illness, the effectiveness of the sampling programme is also related to the spatial distribution of the microorganisms that are being sampled for.

    Organized by the Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis PDG

    Presenters

    • Dr. Marcel Zwietering Wageningen University, The Netherlands

  • ComBase Webinar

    Apr 18, 2012

    The ComBase database of bacterial responses to food environments is a major international initiative to coordinate the collection and dissemination of data on bacterial responses of food-related environments. For academia, ComBase is an electronic repository of data and predictive models on microbial responses to food-environments. For industry and regulation, it is web-based decision support tool for food microbiology and quantitative risk assessment. Participants will hear about both the potentials and limitations of the ComBase database and its associated predictive models, see how to gain information from the database and how to use assigned modeling tool to develop predictive models of growth and survival of pathogens in the interest of better product formulation, experimental design & improved risk assessment.

    Organized by the Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis PDG.

    Presenters

    • Dr. József Baranyi Institute of Food Research (UK)

  • Quantitative Assessment of the Microbial Risk of Leafy Greens from Farm to Consumption: Preliminary Framework, Data, and Risk Estimates

    Jan 17, 2012

    This presentation presents the findings from a project that was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of E. coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions, and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). The QMRA explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field, but the mechanism is unspecified.  This QMRA model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Important data gaps that were identified include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

    Organized by the Fruit and Vegetable Safety and Quality PDG and the Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis PDG

    Presenters

    • Dr. Don Schaffner Rutgers University